Discussion in 'Soap Box' started by LetItGo, Sep 21, 2010.

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  1. LetItGo

    LetItGo Staff Alumni

    China v Japan.

    I have a seriously uneasy feeling about the latest standoff between Japan and China. In this particular instance, I think the Japanese will hand over the Captain of the fishing ship at the center of this dispute in short order, maybe during the next week, but whether that is enough to placate the Chinese...I don't think it is long term.

    More broadly, there is no way the Japanese can give away the area that is in dispute, the Senkaku, at least not wholesale. Doing it once, sets a very, very bad precedent for Japan, and many other Asian countries that are in dispute with China over territorial claims.

    And with Chinese Nationalism in full flight atm, fully supported...it seems, by state apparatus, the demand to crack down on Japan is loud and clear.

    East Asia is gonna go pear shaped eventually. If not now, in the not too distant future. I personally think China will attempt to claim anything they can get there hands on. Maybe I'm a pessimist. The U.S response?

    During a speech at the Japan National Press Club in Tokyo, Armitage warned China that the U.S. military, based on the Japan-U.S. security treaty, would be obligated to take action if China begins engaging in more serious activities around the Senkaku islets.

    "We don't take a position on the ultimate ownership of the Senkakus, but because of our defense treaty with Japan the administrative territories under the administration of Japan are involved in our defense treaty," Armitage said. "And I think and hope that China will take that into full consideration."

    And if the U.S comes in....well where does it end?

    Start building those bomb shelters now people lol.
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 21, 2010
  2. flyingdutchmen

    flyingdutchmen Well-Known Member

    this is pure provocing aka showing their muscless, i wouldnt be to worried yet. remember russia about 2 years ago placed national flags on the bottem of the ocean in the antartic to claim a gas rich area ? it was territory which actually belonged to canada, at least parts of it. some parts where unclear. i am not worried at all, this is normal behaviour for communist country's like china and russia.in the long run though, i could emagine some kind of (a) war(s) over oil or gas fields that are being claimed by multiple party's, but not at this stage yet. commoditie prices prices are simply to low to go to war over at this stage. my guess is a diplomatic solution will be found, without interference of the us
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 21, 2010
  3. Issaccs

    Issaccs Well-Known Member

    The US doesn't maintain Military bases in Japan for the troops benefit.
  4. Zurkhardo

    Zurkhardo Well-Known Member

    Maybe I'm being a bit too optimistic, but I don't feel too concerned. Nationalist flareups like these are quite common and often bring a lot of speculation and concern, but 9 out of 10 times they lead to nothing more than posturing followed by a quiet diplomatic agreement. The interconnected state of the world just makes warfare far more difficult and costly to conduct - not that any proud nation would admit it.

    And while people may throw out the scenario of fanatics in high places not caring any way, such a scenario is both distant and arbitrary. The bureaucratic nature of decision making, for better or worse, does make it less likely that a war would start on impulse. Even in the event of border skirmishes and such, the cooler heads at the top - trained in these sorts of scenarios - generally prevail.
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 21, 2010
  5. aoeu

    aoeu Well-Known Member

    Any links? I'm out of the loop and this isn't on main page of Wikipedia
  6. Just_a_guy

    Just_a_guy Well-Known Member

    I dont think either of them has enough balls to continue this for long
  7. Punk

    Punk Well-Known Member

    The end of the world is a war with China + allies vs NATO + allies. China wont be ready for 30 or so years so will NATo do a Schlieffen?
  8. shades

    shades Staff Alumni

    Nothing to add...beautifully, practically and logically stated.

    Oh and I almost forgot, since the title is "WAR"...

    "huh, what is it good for? Absolutely nothin'...say it again" (Thank you Edwin Starr) For anybody that hasn't heard this song, you owe it to yourselves to listen to it at least once. Starr puts alot of soul and energy into it and the accompanying video is also very good! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_d8C4AIFgUg
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 26, 2010
  9. Hache

    Hache Well-Known Member

    I dont think China will do anything, just like Russia today and yesterday they pick on countries they know the west doesn't care about.
  10. KittyGirl

    KittyGirl Well-Known Member

    I don't know...
    Thinking of Japan and China as two people; they are like neighbors who've hated eachother since they moved in - but both are hesitant to say anything until the other says something first.

    Countries can be deadlocked for a long long time before a war actually breaks out - if it does.

    The last thing the world needs is more wars but it's bound to happen eventually.
    Economies thrive off of wars and terrorism.
  11. Lovecraft

    Lovecraft Well-Known Member

    If I had to put money down on a war I'd say DPRK vs South Korea will be at it again first.
  12. LetItGo

    LetItGo Staff Alumni

    Gonna be interesting when we raid the Arctic and Antarctic for oil, gas and anything else deemed worthy under the guise of peak oil, and what we will be told is "necessary" to prevent economic collapse. Wouldn't be surprised if something nasty kicked off, but I'm hoping sanity prevails.
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